I’ve never been good…
As an accountant. I get the idea, I’m just not very good at it. I have a compulsive personality, which means I’m very good at saying ‘Yes’, but not all that great at saying ‘No’, especially when I think I’ve got the best of it.
These facets of my character, for better or worse, mean that I’m a pretty active in the staking market for poker. And when Vegas and the WSOP comes around, I’m like a moth drawn to the brightest of lights — seeing the chance to get a big score with very little effort indeed, just a few clicks on a mouse or a quick telephone call to the bank and we’re in. Qualified, as TonyG would say.
Unfortunately, this is the year I think I may fly too close to that light and get burned. Between a small couple of pieces on the NPF and some other action I have elsewhere, I’ve got a pretty decent chunk of my life roll in play. Make no mistake about it, if everyone bricks, it’ll sting. It won’t be fatal of course, but it will absolutely sting. Tails will be placed firmly between legs and I’ll be this guy:
I’ve just done the sums, which is something I’m loathe to do — I think I much prefer the absolute sweat of never knowing how much I’ve got in play, but I forced myself to do it this morning and I’m feeling quite exposed this summer. Actually, in the end, it’s not *that* much money, but it’s a bigger percentage of my net than I’m realllllly comfortable having in play — I think 5% is a pretty golden number, but I’m some way past that already.
The compulsiveness is the issue, every time I see what looks like a decent deal, I can’t help but grab a slice, especially as I feel the staking market is pretty inefficient right now, especially for Vegas where people can’t really know their true ROI and I might be able to find some margin.
There’s only one thing for it…..
The only possible plan is to stop punting — big field events are massively high variance, even if you think you have the best of it. I have some pieces of players at 1.5 markup in some events and that’s pretty much the absolute max I’d pay for anyone in anything, the variance is usually just too high. On the other hand, I have pieces of Stumpy and Dan mfkn Trett at 1.2, which are both clearly excellent value, even if Dan’s game is more high variance than Peter’s, I expect to print money with either investment.
The plan is to settle any existing liabilities and not take any more action, in anyone, in anything, for a period of at least two months. That’s a bit of an arbitrary number of months, but my current (over) exposure coupled with some growing insecurities I have about some professional stuff going on, it just seems like a sensible position to take. Regardless of what happens this summer, I’ll still be able to enjoy a pretty decent lifestyle, but making this decision now just gives me some more security (cf professional insecurities…)
Found out yesterday that a family member sadly passed away in the early hours of the morning. I feel quite weird that I don’t really feel anything about it. I hadn’t seen Mary (an ‘aunt’ of some description..), or any of ‘her’ family since I was a pretty small child (including at my grandfather’s funeral a few years ago) — whilst by all accounts she had a pretty torrid last couple of years, as a result of a rare, degenerative brain disease. It’s a weird feeling, because I don’t really feel anything more than ‘it’s a shame that an old lady has died’, which is approximately what I’d feel if the Queen passed, and monarch or otherwise, she isn’t a member of my family. Don’t know what to make of that, pretty sure I should be more upset, or something. Maybe I’m just a sociopath.